Um, CMEs are pretty obvious when they hit. Pretty lights at night and shit for radio comms. We've lost satellites in the fracas before. Given how technologically bound we are there is easy potential for disruption (no gas if the pumps can't verify your credit cards and who carries cash now?). Most folks in the southeastern US, used to hurricanes every year, will get by just fine but NY or LA? There'll be big trouble wherever Rooftop Koreans are in short supply.
If they lie to us non stop about what is going on with the sun and censor all the people saying otherwise then only a small minority will know any better. They could keep that up for years.
I’m hoping that is the plan. The other plan would pulling the plug on our civilization before we find out what is going on. They might still do that, but in a few years.
The Sun operates on an 11 year cycle of sunspots. It's A) predictable, and B) directly observable. This is Cycle 25 since they started observing. Predictions are pretty refined at this point, plus the Space Pope has put in a good word for us. Relax and don't skip your meds.