According to grok the statistical likelihood of 7 AfD candidates dying w/ in a 2 week period is 1 in 1.3 billion. ~~~ please give me statistical information regarding the likelihood of 7 AfD candidates in Germany dying in the past couple weeks Monica Powered By Monica Search Searching: deaths of AfD candidates in Germany August September 2025 Based on 28 search sources Searching: number of AfD candidates in North Rhine-Westphalia local elections 2025 Based on 28 search sources Searching: how many AfD candidates are running in NRW local elections 2025 Based on 28 search sources Recent Reports on AfD Candidate Deaths Based on current news from early September 2025, there have been reports of 6 AfD (Alternative for Germany) candidates dying in the lead-up to local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany. These deaths occurred over a short period in late August and early September 2025, with authorities stating no evidence of foul play or criminal activity. The incidents have sparked conspiracy theories and required ballot reprints in some areas. There are no confirmed reports of exactly 7 deaths—it's possible this is a misremembered figure or an exaggeration, but I'll address the likelihood for 7 as requested, treating it as a hypothetical based on the reported cluster of 6 . Statistical Likelihood Calculation To estimate the probability of 7 AfD candidates dying within a couple of weeks (e.g., a 14-day period), we can use a statistical model based on general mortality rates. This is a high-level approximation assuming independent, natural causes (e.g., no external factors like accidents or foul play). I'll explain the steps, assumptions, and results below. Note: This is not definitive, as real-world events can involve clustering due to chance, shared risks, or other factors. I couldn't find an exact public count of total AfD candidates in the 2025 NRW local elections through searches (AfD is fielding candidates across many of NRW's ~396 municipalities, but precise numbers aren't detailed in recent reports ), so I've used a reasonable estimate. Key Assumptions Total AfD candidates: Approximately 800–1,000. This is an estimate based on AfD's participation in NRW's municipal elections (they're a major party with ~5–10% vote share in past locals, fielding multiple candidates per council list across hundreds of districts). For calculation, I'll use N = 900 as a midpoint . Time period: 14 days (a "couple of weeks"). Base mortality rate: In Germany, the annual crude death rate is about 11–12 per 1,000 people (all ages). For middle-aged adults (e.g., 40–60 years old, typical for political candidates), it's lower—around 2–4 per 1,000 per year, per data from Germany's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). I'll use 3 per 1,000 annually for conservatism . Over 14 days (roughly 1/26 of a year), the per-person probability of death (p) is ~ (3/1,000) / 26 ≈ 0.000115 (or 0.0115%). Model: We use a Poisson distribution to approximate the probability of exactly k deaths, as it's suitable for rare events. The expected number of deaths (λ) = N × p ≈ 900 × 0.000115 ≈ 0.104 (very low, meaning about 1 death every 10 such periods would be expected). Probability Results Expected deaths in 2 weeks: ~0.1 (i.e., far less than 1). Probability of exactly 7 deaths: Using Poisson: P(k=7) = e^{-λ} × (λ^7) / 7! ≈ e^{-0.104} × (0.104^7) / 5040 ≈ 1.3 × 10^{-12}. That's about 1 in 769 trillion—extremely unlikely under normal conditions. Probability of 7 or more deaths: Even smaller, roughly 1.4 × 10^{-12} (cumulative tail probability). Comparison to reported events: For the actual reported 6 deaths, the probability under this model is similarly tiny (~4.5 × 10^{-10}, or 1 in 2.2 billion), suggesting it's statistically anomalous if assuming pure randomness. However, real-life factors like age clustering, health issues, or coincidences can influence this . If we adjust assumptions (e.g., higher mortality for older candidates at 5 per 1,000 annually, p ≈ 0.000192, λ ≈ 0.173), the probability of exactly 7 deaths rises slightly to ~3.2 × 10^{-10} (still 1 in 3.1 billion)—but remains highly improbable. For context, the odds of winning a major lottery are often around 1 in 300 million, making this far rarer. Caveats and Interpretation This model assumes deaths are independent and due to natural causes only (e.g., heart attacks, illnesses). It doesn't account for potential correlations like shared lifestyles, stress from campaigning, or external events (e.g., a local health outbreak). Police reports emphasize no foul play, but the clustering has fueled speculation . If the total candidate pool is smaller (e.g., 500), λ drops to ~0.058, making P(7) even smaller (~10^{-15}). If larger (e.g., 2,000), λ ≈ 0.23, and P(7) ≈ 10^{-8}—still very low. These are population-level stats; individual risks vary by age, health, etc. For real-time or personalized odds, consult actuarial data or experts. Sources for mortality rates: Derived from Destatis (German stats office) and general EU health data; the recent AfD deaths are an outlier compared to historical norms for political figures in Germany, where such clusters are rare. If you have more details (e.g., exact total candidates or specific causes), I can refine this. For the latest news, I recommend checking reliable sources directly, as events are ongoing ~~~