Jews dont travel en masse in December. Only in the spring and fall. Nor do shepherds hang around in pastures at night this time of year in the region - the weather's chilly and miserable.
Winter only begins at the very end of December, and even then the miserable part hasn't truly begun. Descriptions of movement prior to or around Christ's birth are not damning.
What is typical of shepherds need not be viewed as exclusive of possibility. There are many stories in the Bible about people living and working at extraordinary times due to exclusion or other factors.
Option 1) All the flipping Jews were traveling at the same time because of extraordinary circumstances. Also, the fact that xmas is chock full of northern European paganism (yule logs, adorning trees, mistletoe, gift-giving in late december, etc) is a coincidence.
Option 2) Jesus was born in the Spring or Fall, when all the Jews would be traveling for their normal religious observances.
Option 1 requires a boatload of unlikely assumptions. Option 2 requires literally none. Occam's Razor dictates Option 2.
The fullness of evidence, including Church tradition passed down from the Apostles who knew Christ and the Blessed Mother directly, tilts the balance in favor of Option 1.
The pagan elements "baptized" into Church tradition w.r.t. Christmas is not the same as the basic facts about Christ's birth themselves.
(post is archived)