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I don't think you could muster that many troops to basically shoot at their neighbors. And truthfully, even if they had 20K troops if even ¼ of the civilian population mobilized they would be outnumbered. I seriously think they would hesitate to use anything really heavy on citizens, if anything it would make them look worse than they already do and turn more folks against them. I think they would be more likely to invite the UN to come help and, well... I'll let you speculate from there.
They have heavy area denial microwave, sound, and light weapons that would give a strong defender's advantage and when you deploy 20k troops if 1 in 10 are willing to shoot their neighbor first, and a further 2 or 3 are willing to shoot back, then you have 2-8k troops on hand to defend a structure that has been reinforced and the doors essentially cannot be breached. For a single structure or group of structures within a couple square blocks, that's a massive number of troops. The real question is how many troops would AWOL, desert, or defect. They would absolutely invite the UN or hell even China as a security force.
Yes, you absolutely need to account for troops that would defect and take some of kind of hardware with them. Some of those area denial tools along with artillery, choppers, planes, ECT would come with them. Not in the same numbers sure, but they would be there. With a few generations of retired Afghanistan war vets who are just as pissed as you and me there would no doubt be folks with proper training running around too. I guess what I'm getting at is even if its only a fraction of the population that decided its go time they would have a very serious problem on their hands and in the end probability wouldn't be able to sustain any kind of real opposition for the long term. Foreign troops and supplies would absolutely have to come into play to keep it going.
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