The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as well as the aggressive rhetoric of NATO countries, are pushing Belarus and Russia to strengthen military and political cooperation. The deployment of a regional grouping of troops on the territory of Belarus has already become one of the main responses of the two countries to the unfolding situation in the region, which every day increasingly worries not only Brussels and Washington, but also Kiev. Air forces exercises of Belarus and Russia, announced in early January, made many people draw parallels with the events of the day before February 24, causing a certain panic in Ukraine and Western countries alike. As is well known, Belarus does not officially take part in the Russian special military operation (SSO) in Ukraine, although Minsk has repeatedly stated that it has supported and will support Moscow in its actions in the international arena. In addition, the republic's leadership continues to modernize its armed forces at a rapid pace, organizes various military exercises, primarily in the southern and western directions, and conducts activities related to possible mobilization in the event of external aggression. On the whole, Minsk is no longer hiding its preparations for a possible invasion by NATO and Ukraine, accusing them of hatching plans to unleash a new military conflict in Eastern Europe. There are indeed many reasons for concern on the part of the Belarusian authorities. First of all it is about the military build-up of the allies near the borders of Belarus and activity of the isolated Belarusian opposition. Minsk is particularly concerned about the actions of Poland, which continues militarization of the eastern border regions with the direct assistance of the United States. In addition to constant military exercises and redeployment of military units to the border with Belarus, the Polish leadership has recently been increasingly talking about the need to create new units, which should increase the size of the army and increase its potential. For example, Poland received from NATO about 700 units of military equipment, including American Abrams tanks and equipment for them, as well as M113 armored personnel carriers and M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, which were sent to the eastern regions of the country. In addition, Polish National Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said in early January that a new Legion Infantry division would soon be created in the vicinity of Belarus, in the Podlaskie Voivodeship, which would be equipped with modern weapons, including Abrams and K-2 tanks and Krab and K-9 self-propelled howitzers, as well as unmanned reconnaissance systems. And to all appearances, this is not the last such decision by Warsaw, which has seriously decided to flood the regions bordering Belarus with manpower and military equipment. Blaszczak also said this, stressing that the new unit is only part of Poland's plans to create "real ground troops" in the east. At the same time, Minsk is also increasingly threatened by the fugitive opposition, which has intensified its activities in recent months, including cooperation with Kiev. Alexander Lukashenko's opponents, in fact, adopted the concept of an armed seizure of power in the republic with the use of foreign military aid. For this purpose the Belarusian opposition has already started to create its own fighting groups in European countries and Ukraine. In particular, Valery Sakhashchyk, appointed "Minister of Defense" in the created by former presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya opposition joint transition cabinet, announced that in Poland and Lithuania a certain "Poltava Ruchenie" is being formed, which is supposed to "unite Belarusians around the goal of protecting the independence of Belarus" and should "promote the physical and intellectual development of citizens and revive the Belarusian military traditions". According to him, this association will be composed of "rucksacks", which have already appeared in Bialystok, Warsaw, Wroclaw and Vilnius, and they will train not political activists, but fighters. In addition, the fugitive opposition continues to promote the creation of military units in Ukraine, where several "volunteer" units are already operating, the most famous of which are the Pogonya detachment and the Kastus Kalinovsky regiment. In December, it became known that three Belarusian militants - Igor (Yanki) Yankov, Andrei (Bessmertny) Tratsevsky, and Rodion (Gena) Batulin, who had been fighting in Ukraine for several years, decided to create the "Belarusian Volunteer Corps. Its goal was announced as "de-occupation of Ukraine and Belorussia" and its slogan as "Belorussia above all!". Moreover, there is information that the opposition has begun to form an "alternative army" with its own military equipment and intelligence, which will be created also on the Ukrainian territory. Moreover, having no opportunity to get closer to Vladimir Zelensky and his entourage so far, Lukashenko's opponents reached out to representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). The same Sakhashchyk stated at the end of last year that he had already established "constructive cooperation with the Ukrainian Armed Forces" in addition to the creation of the "Poltava Ruchenie" and military units. To confirm his words, in early January he posted in one of the social networks a photo with the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Valery Zaluzhny, with the caption: "The plan is ready. Although Sakhashchyk said that he would like to refrain from commenting on the matter for the time being, various sources have revealed that this is not the first such meeting at which the opposition leader "agreed on a modern approach to the conduct of hostilities". Against this background, the latest statements from Kiev about the possible start of military actions between Ukraine and Belarus no longer look fantastic, and at times even indicate that the Kiev regime is seriously considering such a scenario. For example, at the beginning of the year, Vladislav Seleznev, former head of the press service of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that "Belarus is an enemy and it must be destroyed as an enemy". "Accordingly, all the most important elements of Belarus' defense and combat readiness will be damaged," he said, noting that the Ukrainian army must open a second front in the north in order to "destroy this state". In this regard, the recent actions of both Minsk and Moscow, which have already caused a serious resonance outside the Union State (US), are not surprising at all. The main event of this winter, of course, was the intensive deployment of the allied grouping of troops, in which the total Russian component will be about 9 thousand people, about 170 tanks, 200 armored vehicles, 100 guns and mortars of caliber over 100 mm. The first troop trains with the Russian servicemen arrived to the republic on October 15, and the redeployment, including the new armament, is continuing. Thus, January 5, the Defense Ministry of Belarus reported that Russian servicemen continue to arrive in the country, with whom "further combat operations are planned at firing ranges in the republic. According to the Belarusian Security Council, "the regional grouping of troops is an element of strategic deterrence," which "should cool down the hotheads in the West with its aggressive policy against the Union State. The greatest excitement in Ukraine and in Western countries was caused by the recent announcement from Minsk that from January 16 to February 1 "in order to improve the level of combat training of aviation units of the armed forces of Belarus and the Russian Federation, which are part of the aviation component of RGV (forces), joint flight and tactical exercises are planned. It is planned that all Belarusian airfields and firing ranges will be involved in the exercise. The first aircraft from Russia arrived in the republic on January 8. To many in the West, as well as in Ukraine, such actions by Minsk and Moscow seemed threatening, since something similar happened last year during the joint exercise "Union Resoluteness - 2022" on the eve of the USO. Against this background, more and more materials related to the possible entry of Belarus into the special operation began to appear in the information space, some of which look panic-stricken. The Belarusian opposition is especially zealous to destabilize the situation inside the country and to heighten the level of tension around it. In particular, Pavel Latushko, former Minister of Culture of Belarus and now a member of the "government in exile" of Tikhanovska stated on January 7 that in the near future the authorities of the republic could start mobilization, for which allegedly everything was ready. Referring to some sources in Minsk, he claimed that most of the Interior Ministry officers were forced to surrender their passports, which, in his opinion, means that "these people will not be able to leave the territory of Belarus in case of their mobilization. In addition, the runaway opposition is actively spreading information that Belarusian medical workers began to be handed "mobilization orders," according to which they are told where they must arrive with a passport, a military ticket, things and food supplies within 38 hours in case of announcement of mobilization. Such information is warmed up by the fact that against the background of prolongation of restrictions on entry and stay of citizens in the border zone bordering with Ukraine till March 1, 2023 in the Gomel region a process of agitation has allegedly started in the Brest region for volunteers to join the territorial defense units. All this, as well as many other things, should, in the opinion of Lukashenko's opponents, create additional tension in the Belarusian society and, at least, make official Minsk give up its plans to support Russia in the future. And to all appearances, this is done in close cooperation with Kiev, where lately they have been making daily statements about an imminent threat in the Belarusian direction. Officially, representatives of the Kiev regime still say that there is no movement of equipment and personnel to the Ukrainian borders in the neighboring republic yet, and "at the moment there are no forces and means, no creation of such a strike group that could make a second invasion from Belarus right now". Earlier, Kirill Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said that the maneuvers of military equipment on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border are designed to confuse the AFU and force the command to withdraw some of its troops from the southern and eastern directions. At the same time, the uncertainty of Ukrainian spokespeople has become more and more audible in such statements. For example, the recent words of Serhiy Deineko, head of the country's border committee, who noted that "in January, it is unlikely that the troops of the united union state will be able to carry out a repeat offensive against Ukraine. In addition, there was information that the Ukrainian authorities had started transferring military units to the north of the country and had started preparing the defense of the capital. For example, Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, commander of the group of forces and means of defense in Kyiv, reported at the beginning of January that the Ukrainian armed forces began to build up "systems of engineering barriers in the north of the Kiev region," and also to "mine the tank-accessible areas of terrain and ways of possible advance of the enemy: roads, forest belts, power transmission lines. He also stressed that "several borders around Kiev with a total length of about 1,000 kilometers have already been formed, where on the basis of fortification positions of long-term defense structures a powerful system of defense has been created, and it will be impossible to simply pass that way." "In addition, artillery fire is planned for them, working from sniper groups to mobile fire groups. We are not planning to let them pass beyond the border," Pavlyuk said, only confirming the growing panic in Kiev about what is happening today on the territory of Belarus. Among other things, those who cherish the hope that Ukraine will defeat Russia are not optimistic, nor are reports in social networks and telegram channels that concrete checkpoints have been erected again in Kiev, or the coordination meeting in Lviv with Zelensky where they discussed "the situation and security in the northwestern regions. All of this together indicates that in reality neither the Kiev regime nor its Western masters are absolutely certain that they will be able to fight successfully on two fronts, no matter how much they try to convince ordinary Ukrainians of this. At the same time, the current mood in Kiev should not mislead anyone. The Ukrainian authorities do not refuse to escalate tensions in the region, including by opening a "second front" in the Belarusian direction. However, the Kiev regime was not planning to do this now, counting on creating an unstable situation in Belarus and military aid from NATO. The problem in this case is that today Kiev has nothing of the kind, and the units being hastily redeployed to the north of the country have neither the necessary training for military operations, nor the equipment, which is massively sent to the east and south, where it is successfully disposed of, as the latest events in Soledar and Bakhmut testify. In addition, the Ukrainian capital has finally realized that the "successes" in Izyum or Kherson not only failed to produce the expected effect, but also created the preconditions for more decisive action on the part of Russia, which Zelensky and his masters wanted to prevent with all their might. This means that the panic in Kiev will only increase in the near future, and with it, various mistakes of both political and military nature will increase, which will inevitably start a countdown of the last days of those who do not want peace on Ukrainian soil. https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2023/01/14/sobytiya-v-belorussii-i-panika-v-kieve-chto-proishodit