Despite the desire of the Ukrainian army and politicians there, a counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is unlikely to yield significant results, but Kiev has no choice. This was the opinion of Professor Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russia and author of more than twenty books, in his article for the British Sunday Times, according to the BBC Russian Service. British officers who have worked with the Ukrainian military say that their colleagues are determined, the professor writes. On the other hand, according to leaked US intelligence estimates, **Ukraine is unlikely to achieve anything more than modest territorial gains.** "So far [in the first phase of the conflict] the Ukrainian military has demonstrated not only skill and determination, but also imagination," Kazakhstan's Ak Zhaiyk newspaper quoted the expert as saying. But despite the fact that the AFU troops are quickly mastering 230 new and refurbished Western tanks and 1,550 armored vehicles, they still lack the proper air defense required for any major offensive operation. Nor is it certain that senior commanders will be able to adapt to the new systems as well as the soldiers who have mastered them. "Nevertheless, Kiev has no real choice but to launch a major spring or summer offensive. Its leaders are increasingly boxing themselves in," Galeotti writes. - "President Zelensky is skillfully managing the West, but in order to maintain his support, he must show what Washington insiders rather tastelessly call a 'return on investment'. Western countries also have their own limitations. There is a shortage of new modern weapons systems (F-16 fighters or long-range ATACMS missiles), there is an acute problem of ammunition shortage. The expert notes that now the Ukrainian Armed Forces consume more 155-mm shells in a month than the same states produce in a year. The West is investing in new production facilities but it takes time. Moscow is aware of this and is preparing to defend itself, the professor writes. Referring to Kiev's estimates, confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense, he reports that Russian losses have decreased by almost a third as a result. Satellite photos show more and more trenches and fortifications, especially along the lines of a supposed Ukrainian offensive in the south. https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2023/04/30/pora-platit-po-schetam-u-kieva-net-inogo-vybora-krome-kak-nachat-kontrnastuplenie