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589

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[–] 1 pt (edited )

Lumber prices are up near 340% or more over last year. Delivered log prices are only up around 20ish%. They may be running at capacity but the milling side of the lumber market is certainly taking advantage of "muh covid shutdowns" to string things along, nevermind that the entire forestry sector was umbrellad under agriculture as an essential industry in most states.

And if you entrepreneurially wanted to start your own mill since you can see there is money to be made, if you could ever scrape the capital together, the established players (of which there are functionally only one or two for each wood product in each woodbasket) would coordinate to drop their lumber prices low enough, raise their delivered log rates, and buy/sell at a loss long enough to starve you out. And then they'll buy your facility and present it to the public as a benevolent acquisition to keep the industry afloat since clearly the small player couldn't hack it.

With all that said, there is constant fuckery on the import/export side of the industry. There are strict controls in place under the softwood lumber agreement that keep Canada from flooding US markets with cheap wood. As tariffs change, yards like this one in Vermont will back up. Pretty convenient for our globally oriented or owned milling companies who try so hard to pass themselves off as pillars of the good old blue collar American lifestyle.

[–] 3 pts

There's some definite fuckery going on. We produce this stuff in my town. We have 3 mills, all major players. Despite this, we're still seeing sheets of plywood sell for four times what they did a year ago and production have never stopped or slowed down here.

[–] 2 pts

Well when you print 23% of the entire supply of US Dollars ever made in the past 4 months, perhaps those dollars are buying less.