I am on the side that thinks it will never become more than a convincing NPC simply because it relies on mass human intelligence in order to function.
This has always been my view as well.
I think most people are no more than convincing NPCs.
If it uses all human intelligence then it is already far more than an NPC because NPCs can't access information beyond that which is given to them. They can't verify anything. They can't process data. You literally described how it is more than an NPC then concluded that this is why it will always be one. That makes no sense.
Not to mention that AI has already surpassed that metric and can invent new information. Neural networks literally create patterns from data sets that are not programmed. DALL.E is inventing new images on its own.
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