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I own a couple of retail businesses. Through Covid I saw supply chain problems move pricing on the retail side. Now, I'm seeing wholesale prices change week to week on products with little past fluctuation. Some of this can be attributed to unusually high demand for freight as economies re-emerge, and tight labor markets. I fear that these reasons however, are hiding immediate inflation problems being signaled in commodities and by a parabolic monetary supply. What happens when prices increase 30% after existing inventory is depleted?

I own a couple of retail businesses. Through Covid I saw supply chain problems move pricing on the retail side. Now, I'm seeing wholesale prices change week to week on products with little past fluctuation. Some of this can be attributed to unusually high demand for freight as economies re-emerge, and tight labor markets. I fear that these reasons however, are hiding immediate inflation problems being signaled in commodities and by a parabolic monetary supply. What happens when prices increase 30% after existing inventory is depleted?

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[–] 3 pts

These price increases are about to slam right into a collapse in sales.

Stagflation. Haven't seen that since the 1970's. In the 1970's, it was a result of both money printing and a tenfold increase in OPEC oil prices. Reagan fixed that with double digit interest rates and the Iran Iraq war. That stopped the out of control lending. Millions died, but those oil prices came back down for a while. Stagflation ended and normal economic growth returned. Then the lenders started a housing and stock market boom which collapsed around '88 or so. The Bush 1 recession. Greenspan Fed. Greenspan just printed money for 20 straight years.

I remember the panic in the early 1990's. Before then, to get a credit card, you had to have assets. They panicked and started issuing easy credit to everyone, no questions asked - a gold card with a $5000 limit. They replaced wages with credit, and that system has held to this day.

You should have seen the sales in the early 90's. Vendors desperate for cash, everything 50% off or more. The flea market was the busiest place in town, for at least three years. Malls were empty except at Christmas. Retailers closed at record rates.

We will see all that again if they are not extremely careful with what they do next.

Unfortunately, utopians are bad with math. They have abandoned all hope of monetary restraint, so it's looking at another Wiemar scenario. Loss of currency value. The Fed has another money printer at the helm.

If I were you I would be preparing to downsize the operations. You need to preserve your capital.

Take a serious look at the liquidations business. The math is outstanding. I made a bucket load of money in liquidations during the great recession. In the face of high inflation two distinct things happen. First, retailers go under at record rates. Second, everyone starts shopping harder and buying less. They are looking for deals and pay much closer attention to the prices. Neither of these things happen in good times.

People still buy. The retailers who bring the best prices are the ones who profit. Those retailers are the liquidators who buy inventory at 10 cents on the retail dollar from other bankrupt retailers, and sell it for 50% off retail price. Profit is 400% less expenses.