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Trump won 2016 with 6% of the black vote, 28% of the Hispanic vote, and 54% of the white vote. According to the , in 2020 Trump received 35% of the Hispanic vote, 8% of the black vote, and 55% of the white vote. The puts it even higher: 11% black, 32% Hispanic, and 58% white.

Trump supposedly lost the election because of losing heavily black cities in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. There's no mathematical way that those two things can be reconciled. It doesn't matter how many voters turned out. If a larger percentage voted for Trump than in 2016, his margin of victory should be increased from 2016 by the same amount.

What am I missing?

Trump won 2016 with 6% of the black vote, 28% of the Hispanic vote, and 54% of the white vote. According to the [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/graphics/votecast-2020/), in 2020 Trump received 35% of the Hispanic vote, 8% of the black vote, and 55% of the white vote. The [New York Times ](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html)puts it even higher: 11% black, 32% Hispanic, and 58% white. Trump supposedly lost the election because of losing heavily black cities in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. There's no mathematical way that those two things can be reconciled. It doesn't matter how many voters turned out. If a larger percentage voted for Trump than in 2016, his margin of victory should be increased from 2016 by the same amount. What am I missing?

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[–] • 0 pt

I'm using the 74,216,154 popular votes Trump received (47.7% of the popular vote) and the 8% black, 35% Hispanic, and 55% white figure for the proportions. The only way 8% black, 35% Hispanic, and 55% white can add up to anything close to 47.7% is with the number of white votes equal to about 5.44 times the black vote and 1.74 times the Hispanic vote. There's wiggle room because of Asians, etc., but not by a factor of two.

[–] • 0 pt

Yes, I'm looking for (for example) how many black voters are there?

If I'm reading this right, let's say 8% of his vote is black which means 5.92 million blacks voted for trump. There are about 42 million blacks in the country, which means about 14% of all black people voted for trump (assuming they all voted which ofc they didn't)

I think you're making a mistake where you're taking the fact that -8% of trumps votes were black- and later mistakenly thinking that means -8% of ALL voters are black- to extrapolate for how many blacks there must be

Right?

[–] • 0 pt (edited )

It's not 8% of his vote is black, it's 8% of all black votes are Trump votes. If that's even close to true, there has to be around 8 million black Trump votes. That's the only way you can make things add up.