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225

Today, Putin has calculated that taking Ukraine by force is in his and Russia's interest. He no doubt anticipated that the West would impose diplomatic and economic sanctions, which U.S. and European leaders threatened beforehand. Putin may have miscalculated Ukrainian resistance and the intensity of the West's opposition, but it doesn't mean he is crazy, or didn't consider the possibilities and chose to invade regardless. It remains to be seen if Putin's plan will succeed or fail, but what is clear is that there was a plan to invade Ukraine in force, and that plan has been executed since day one. Ukrainian troops are putting up a valiant fight facing long odds and difficult conditions. Russia holds most if not all of the advantages. It can, and has, attacked Ukraine from three different directions. The Russian military holds a decided advantage in manpower, as well as air, naval and armor superiority. It has vast resources to draw on. While Ukraine has the support of much of the international community, which is providing weapons, Ukraine is fighting alone. Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html

> Today, Putin has calculated that taking Ukraine by force is in his and Russia's interest. > He no doubt anticipated that the West would impose diplomatic and economic sanctions, which U.S. and European leaders threatened beforehand. > Putin may have miscalculated Ukrainian resistance and the intensity of the West's opposition, but it doesn't mean he is crazy, or didn't consider the possibilities and chose to invade regardless. > It remains to be seen if Putin's plan will succeed or fail, but what is clear is that there was a plan to invade Ukraine in force, and that plan has been executed since day one. > Ukrainian troops are putting up a valiant fight facing long odds and difficult conditions. Russia holds most if not all of the advantages. > It can, and has, attacked Ukraine from three different directions. The Russian military holds a decided advantage in manpower, as well as air, naval and armor superiority. > It has vast resources to draw on. While Ukraine has the support of much of the international community, which is providing weapons, Ukraine is fighting alone. > Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. > We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html

(post is archived)

[–] 1 pt

I think they are seriously holding back. Just doing enough to slowly win.

Yep, there's no point in creating future martyrs, he had that in Chechnya, and since the West can't do anything to stop them, then taking the time to gather intelligence on positions is tactically better

I read somewhere he budgeted 50K personnel losses and he's only (reportedly) lost 1% of his tanks so far. Even that is meaningless as the T-14 is planned and part of the Amarta program was to melt down 4,000 armoured vehicles anyway.

The whole enterprise seems to be a bad idea as its GDP is dependant upon exporting raw materials, so if it can't trade then it's now North Korea.

[–] 0 pt

The gdp cost to Russia is a fraction of the gdp loss to the rest of the world.

The sanctions are traitorous.

Putin knew the cost. We don't