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Trump won 2016 with 6% of the black vote, 28% of the Hispanic vote, and 54% of the white vote. According to the , in 2020 Trump received 35% of the Hispanic vote, 8% of the black vote, and 55% of the white vote. The puts it even higher: 11% black, 32% Hispanic, and 58% white.

Trump supposedly lost the election because of losing heavily black cities in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. There's no mathematical way that those two things can be reconciled. It doesn't matter how many voters turned out. If a larger percentage voted for Trump than in 2016, his margin of victory should be increased from 2016 by the same amount.

What am I missing?

Trump won 2016 with 6% of the black vote, 28% of the Hispanic vote, and 54% of the white vote. According to the [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/graphics/votecast-2020/), in 2020 Trump received 35% of the Hispanic vote, 8% of the black vote, and 55% of the white vote. The [New York Times ](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html)puts it even higher: 11% black, 32% Hispanic, and 58% white. Trump supposedly lost the election because of losing heavily black cities in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. There's no mathematical way that those two things can be reconciled. It doesn't matter how many voters turned out. If a larger percentage voted for Trump than in 2016, his margin of victory should be increased from 2016 by the same amount. What am I missing?

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[–] • 0 pt

I'll give you a hint, you're combining percentages of subpopulations as though they're percentages of the total population

I'm adding them as if the total is the total percentage of the population. If we know that 20% of X and 30% of Y add up to 25% of X+Y, we know that X and Y must be equal. If they aren't, the equality is false. Hopefully that's clear. Now, use that principle with the election results.

0.08B + 0.35H + 0.55W = 0.477(B + H + W)

In other words, 8% of the black vote + 35% of the Hispanic vote + 55% of the rest has to add up to 47.7% of the total popular vote. That establishes the relationship among the variables even if we don't know what those variables are. It means that the number of voters not Hispanic or black has to be 5.44 times as many as black voters, and 1.74 times as many as Hispanic voters. Since we know Trump's official popular vote was 74,216,154, we know that has to mean 7,761,600 black votes, 24,255,900 Hispanic votes, and 42,198,700 white/Asian votes (with rounding errors).

If 7,761,600 is 8% of the black vote, that means there were over 97 million black voters. Likewise, if 24,255,900 is 35% of the Hispanic vote, that means there are over 69 million Hispanic voters. The white/Asian proportion works out to 76 million white/Asian voters. Something is very wrong. The Hispanic population is "close enough" if you figure that the percentages are off by 5% plus or minus, but those black and white numbers are off the charts wrong ... by more than a factor of 2.

What am I doing wrong?

[–] • 0 pt

Ok im taking this more seriously now that I can see your reasoning. I'm a bit preoccupied with work so I'll come back and check later, but one thing I can see is this isn't counting Asian (or other) votes. Asians had about 11 million (unless they count as white?)

Can you provide me with the total number of voters you're using, as well as how many voters make up each racial group? I'm trying trying to find them but it's all Google propaganda I'm finding.

If you gimme those numbers I'll do the calculations from another direction and see what I come up with (you might be making a small logical mistake or yiu might be onto something idk). I'm busy with work rn so I'll come back and work on this later if you can provide those numbers

[–] • 0 pt

I'm using the 74,216,154 popular votes Trump received (47.7% of the popular vote) and the 8% black, 35% Hispanic, and 55% white figure for the proportions. The only way 8% black, 35% Hispanic, and 55% white can add up to anything close to 47.7% is with the number of white votes equal to about 5.44 times the black vote and 1.74 times the Hispanic vote. There's wiggle room because of Asians, etc., but not by a factor of two.

[–] • 0 pt

Yes, I'm looking for (for example) how many black voters are there?

If I'm reading this right, let's say 8% of his vote is black which means 5.92 million blacks voted for trump. There are about 42 million blacks in the country, which means about 14% of all black people voted for trump (assuming they all voted which ofc they didn't)

I think you're making a mistake where you're taking the fact that -8% of trumps votes were black- and later mistakenly thinking that means -8% of ALL voters are black- to extrapolate for how many blacks there must be

Right?